Unions: The membership decline continues

OECD data shows union membership halved (since 1985) to 15%, making EU's 80% collective bargaining coverage target unrealistic amid declining interest in joining a union

The Key Points: OECD data reveals that trade union membership has halved since 1985, dropping from 30% to 15% in 2023/24 across member countries. The decline has been widespread, with only Iceland, Belgium, and to lesser extents Canada, Korea, and Norway bucking this trend. Collective bargaining coverage has similarly fallen from 47% in 1985 to 33.6% in 2023/24. Gender differences in unionization remain minimal, with women at 14.2% and men at 14.9%, while public sector unionization (41.3%) significantly exceeds private sector levels (10.1%). Employer organization membership has remained relatively stable at around 55% of private sector employees, down only slightly from 59% in the 1980s.

Why This Matters: These figures demonstrate that the EU's Adequate Minimum Wage Directive target of 80% collective bargaining coverage is unrealistic and unachievable given current worker preferences. The data undermines arguments for "social conditionality" clauses in public contracts that would restrict contracts to employers with collective agreements. It also challenges union demands for limits on subcontracting chains, which essentially request business organization changes to benefit declining union membership. In today's political climate emphasizing global competitiveness, legislators are unlikely to prioritize rebuilding union membership over economic concerns.

What Might Happen Next: The trend toward declining union membership appears likely to continue, with no evidence of sustained reversal despite temporary COVID-19 increases. Political support for union-friendly legislation may diminish as policymakers face competitive pressures and recognize the disconnect between union demands and worker preferences. 

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