Brexit: The end of omerta?

Many UK politicians now acknowledge Brexit's economic damage and see much closer alignment with the EU as key to boosting economic growth, but they are not prepared to break the taboo and suggest rejoining, instead seeking benefits without commitments

The Key Points UK government politicians are increasingly acknowledging Brexit's economic damage, with the Office for Budget Responsibility set to downgrade productivity growth estimates citing Brexit and Covid-19 as factors. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey stated Brexit's economic impact will remain negative for the foreseeable future, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves admitted the impact is severe and long-lasting. Despite recognising the damage, politicians still seek EU benefits without rejoining the EU, Customs Union, Single Market, or accepting Freedom of Movement.

Why This Matters: The ending of political silence around Brexit's economic costs represents a significant shift in UK policy discourse. However, the UK's continued red lines limit negotiating options with the EU, which has little incentive to offer concessions without long-term commitments. Political instability risks mean any agreements reached by the current Labour government could be reversed by future more anti EU administrations.

What Might Happen Next: Expect continued acknowledgement of Brexit's economic impact but limited policy changes. The EU is unlikely to engage in substantive negotiations while the UK maintains its current red lines. Much will depend on whether the Labour government secures a second term to provide negotiating stability.

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Anand Menon writes in the Guardian