Mexico is actively advocating for the early initiation of USMCA renegotiations, originally set for 2026, to ensure trade stability with the U.S. and Canada. This move comes in response to declining investments, slow economic growth, and the unpredictability of the U.S. tariffs. Both employers and unions have objectives they aim to achieve through these negotiations.
What businesses want from the renegotiation: Mexico's Central Bank has cut the 2025 GDP growth forecast to a mere 0.1%. As the economic challenges are facing Mexico, it’s paramount important to maintain favorable relations with the U.S., its largest export market.
Certainty in Investment: Concerns over trade uncertainties, coupled with domestic judicial reforms, have led to a 21% drop in foreign direct investment in the first quarter of the year. Employers desire stability and predictability in trade agreements to ensure that investment decisions are secure and long-term planning can proceed without disruptions.
Labor Market Access: Employers want provisions that facilitate easy access to skilled labor across borders, with balanced wage requirements that support competitive manufacturing and service sectors.
Regulatory Consistency: There is a need for consistent and harmonized regulations across the three countries to minimize trade barriers and reduce compliance costs.
Infrastructure Support: Infrastructure improvements, particularly in Mexico, are crucial for efficient supply chain operations and cross-border logistics.
Digital Trade Provisions: Enhanced rules for digital trade and e-commerce to support the growing digital economy and ensure data flow across borders are becoming increasingly important for businesses.
What unions want from the renegotiation: Alejandro Martínez, General Secretary of the National Food and Commerce Union (SNAC), proposed four measures to improve labor relations, particularly regarding the Rapid Response Labor Mechanism (RRM).
Ensuring Real Worker Representation: Emphasizing the need for the real voices of workers to participate in negotiations, moving away from past practices that involved negotiations with the "labor power mafia," which led to corruption and weakened unions.
Establishing Regional Labor Standard: Proposing a legal contract based on region and industry to prevent labor rights violations, standardize labor practices, and remove taxes on tips. This includes ensuring that no negotiation falls below agreed standards and making overtime tax-free.
Auditing Labor Lawyers: Calling for audits of labor lawyers, who often promote union avoidance strategy.
Protecting Union Movements Under Attack: Highlighting the need to protect authentic union leaderships and minority unionism from systemic control and attacks, especially in large contracts.
What’s next: Canada is on board with the early renegotiations to avoid the tariff turmoil. It is not certain if or when the renegotiation will start, but the rules of country origins and Rapid response mechanisms are definitely focal points for employers among other things.

Wenchao Dong
Senior Director and Leader, HR Policy Global, HR Policy Association
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