Labor Market Further Cools in October

Job gains in just three industries masked weak or no job growth in most other industries and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, up from 3.5% in July.

Employers added just 150,000 payroll jobs in October and August, and September job gains were revised down a combined 101,000 jobs over those previously reported.

Just three industries accounted for 86% of the monthly job gain: Health care (+58,400), state and local government (+48,000), and construction (+23,000). Most other industries were little changed.

UAW and Hollywood strikes held back the job gains. Manufacturing jobs fell by 35,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 33,000 in motor vehicles and parts.

Annual wage growth cooled to 4.1%, down from the 4.3% to 4.4% range it has been in since March 2023 and significantly lower than the 5.4% wage gain in August 2022.

Labor market slowing. Separately, the BLS also reported the rate of hiring and separations have both slowed significantly over the past two years despite job openings remaining relatively high.

Further slowing ahead? While strike settlements will boost job gains next month, tighter financial and credit conditions are likely to weigh on economic activity and hiring going forward. Households are also cutting back on spending as gas and food prices remain high, college loan payments restart, and wage gains slow.